2.50 million new BEV passenger cars are forecast to enter the West European new passenger car market during 2025 for the first time (previously 2.52 million), or an increase of 570,000 units over 2024 (+29.5% y/y). 2025 BEV mix forecast remains at 21.6%, rising from 16.7% during full-year 2024. Between January and April, the market grew by 28.2% year-on-year, returning to a BEV mix of 18.4%. We have factored in a positive impact from an expected return from the French social-leasing scheme from September, which is expected to see the budget funded from the energy saving certificate (CEE) scheme rather than being funnelled directly from the Finance Department according to a decree published by the government. This is also expected to see the purchase subsidies rise slightly above the current €2,000-€4,000 limits and offer social leasing rates for low-income households from €100 per month once implemented. Crucially, this may also set a precedent for an EU-wide social leasing programme, which OEMs are calling for. That would likely stem from a social fund budget allocated in the next round of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS II), which encompasses road transport for the first time. Any pan-EU social leasing scheme is unlikely to be implemented until 2027/28, however.