Deadline for the call for interest: 30 November 2021
Duration of open pool: 2021
According to latest exclusive Schmidt Automotive Research and European Commission data, Volvo Cars and its all-electric car subsidiary Polestar intend to form an open CO2 pool for 2021, inviting laggards to enter.
Ford of Europe, having struggled to meet its CO2 obligations last year (2020) due to battery supplier issues, impacting its Kuga and Explorer PHEV models during the closing months of 2020, entered into Volvo Cars' open CO2 pool at about the same time last year, in a last ditch attempt to avoid fines from Brussels.
Ford unlikely to join Volvo pool party this year Despite Ford temporarily halting production of its low emitting Fiesta model at its German Cologne facility due to the semiconductor shortage, Ford's West European plug-in penetration of it total passenger car deliveries during the opening 8-months appears more than healthy according to exclusive European Electric Car Report data published each month.
From January to August across the 18 market West European region, just below 14 per cent of all of Ford's new models entering the region's roads came fitted with a plug. This relatively high level of penetration, thanks to its PHEVs models as well as the European introduction of the all-electric Mustang Mach-E, lead the European Electric Car Report to the conclusion of it being unlikely that Ford would reform a pool with the Geely-owned company again this year. Volvo Cars EU fleet average CO2 emissions fell from 132 g/km in 2019 to 111 g/km in 2020.
The Chinese owned company put this mainly down to increased sales of their plug-in hybrids, helping them to exceed their individual EU emissions target in 2020 and offer enough extra capacity to accommodate Ford.
As part of the pooling agreement last year Volvo Cars received a compensation from Ford accounted for as a part of revenue. Although 2021 obligations are tougher to meet due to the 5 per cent phase-in, which was present in 2020, falling away, as well as the super-credits for vehicles emitting under 50g/km CO2 (NEDC) reducing in value – assuming manufacturers have any of the limited 7.5g/km up to the end of 2022 left – almost all manufacturers appear on target to meet their CO2 obligations.
According to the next edition of the European Electric Car report the plug-in mix from new car registrations during the opening 9-months of the year in the monitored 18 West European market region rose to 18.6 per cent with levels expected to reach 20 per cent by the end of the year. Last year the plug-in penetration of all new passenger car registrations was was just 12.4 per cent. Who would join a Volvo / Polestar pool?
Despite almost all manufacturers saying they will meet their CO2 targets this year, due to the continuing semiconductor shortage it could lead certain luxury OEMs, such as Jaguar Land Rover deciding to push higher emitting profitable models, forgoing sales of lower margin plug-in models. JLR which is classified as a niche manufacturer has a derogation target of just 131.8g/km rather than the fleet weight-based average 95g/km (NEDC) target for volume manufacturers. They could decide to push more profitable models and through a cost benefit analysis process decide it would make more sense to pay to join a pool and push more profitable, higher emitting models, than reduce these models from a limited supply of semiconductor chips forcing them to push less profitable plug-ins to meet their obligated CO2 target. Last year JLR failed to meet its EU CO2 obligation goal, attributing 35 million GBP to fines for this according to JLR.
The European Electric Car Flash Report which is published on a monthly basis covers the entire West European region in a detailed data-driven manner.
May also interest you: Future outlook: Semiconductor crisis accelerates the EV transition... BEVs are now expected to soak up 10.2% (1.132M units) of the total market while with PHEVs added to the equation – a route mostly exploited by premium OEMs click here for the story
*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK