Updated: Mar 3, 2020
With the first year of West European Tesla Model 3 deliveries boosting the pure electric BEV passenger car market into record orbit this year – more than doubling the market growth rate, as seen without it, the slow return of the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) – a key ingredient in helping premium manufacturers reach their EU 2020/21 CO2 targets – combined plug-in registrations are on target to reach 0.5 million units this year already, or 3.5 percent of the total market. This data, compiled on a monthly basis and presented in the SMA Data European Electric Car Report, indicates this level would be equal to the equivalent level seen in China just three years ago (2016) – with the inclusion of light commercial vehicles included in the Chinese data – according to CAAM data.
Next year thanks to a burst of activity from OEMs, sprinting to reach 2020 95g/km fleet average CO2 levels there is expected to be a hive of activity in the market with VW Group alone (across all brands) already committing to 300,000 European BEV deliveries next year (2020) according to a Volkswagen AG investor relations report published earlier this year. So far this year Volkswagen Group has registered just 30,000 BEV units across the region during the opening 9-months. Consequently a doubling in plug-in volumes can be expected next year, which would push annual levels to one million units in 2020, a level that was surpassed in China only last year (2018). This report expects roughly 700,000 of those plug-ins to be pure EV or just below five percent of the total West European passenger car market in 2020. Another large increase is expected in 2021 when 100 percent of the all the vehicles in the fleet have to reach the average 95g/km CO2 target (the worst five percent can be omitted in 2020) and then levels are expected to grow more steadily up to 2025 when the next 15 percent cut in emissions targets will be introduced.