Netherlands to become first EU market to see AFVs outsell diesels according to new research

According to joint schmidtmatthias.de and AID research, The Netherlands is imminently expected to be the first EU country to see Alternative Fuelled Vehicles (AFVs) outsell pure diesel powered passenger cars this year.

Dutch citizens soon more likely to choose an AFV over a diesel

This is likely to happen during at least one month this year and possibly as early as this current month (September), according to Matthias Schmidt.

During the final four months of 2018 registrations of pure electric BEVs (battery electric vehicles) priced above €50,000 are expected to rise dramatically as new BIK (Benefit in Kind) tax changes come into force at the beginning of next year. Diesel mix of new passenger cars registered in The Netherlands in August stood at just 12 per cent according to AID published data, while the AFV sales mix in The Netherlands stood narrowly under 10 per cent according to RAI sourced data, 15.8 percentage of which were Tesla models.

AFV mix is expected to rise in September as a fresh batch of Tesla vehicles are delivered to European markets, a trend that happens at the end of each quarter, boosting numbers. AFVs include all vehicles not solely powered by a traditional diesel or petrol powered engine. Just under half of AFVs during the opening 8-months of the year were made up by HEV full hybrids, although thanks to the Tesla boost in August more pure electric vehicles were registered in August making it the most popular AFV choice accounting for 42 per cent of the AFV mix narrowly ahead of HEV full hybrids (41 per cent).

Registrations of these premium pure electric plug-in vehicles, priced above €50,000 are required to take place before the end of the year to avoid the BIK rate rising for the value of the vehicle over €50,000 from 4% to 22% on January 1 2019.

Tesla Motors advised customers to order their vehicles before mid-July in order to guarantee delivery before midnight on December 31st 2018. Jaguar is also expected to deliver high volumes of its new pure electric iPace vehicle priced above €50,000 and prioritise Dutch deliveries before the tax change takes place.

At the beginning of next year however the Dutch AFV market is likely to collectively suffer from this premium BEV sales pull forward although towards the end of the year a more sustained high level (over 10%) of AFV sales mix is likely to return.

© 2020 by Matthias Schmidt | Berlin, Germany