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Q3 West European electric passenger car market round-up

Almost 0.1m pure electric cars registered across W-Europe during an electrifying September. A brief dive into the current report available here:

With 2020 CO2 compliance targets rapidly approaching the final furlong and correspondingly acting as the main catalyst in more plug-in models arriving on Europe's roads from a supply-side, coupled together with generous EV purchase and fiscal stimuli impacting the demand side, the final quarters of 2020 are providing the perfect conditions for an electrically charged storm over Europe's EV market.

During the opening three quarters of the year, almost every tenth (9.7%) newly registered West-European passenger car was a plug-in passenger car. This was dramatically boosted by third quarter combined PHEV/BEVs achieving a record 360,000 new registrations or 12 per cent mix of the total market, (September: 13%). With a respective 46/54 per cent PHEV/BEV split during the opening three quarters, contributing in the race to 2020 EU CO2 compliance, a worrying grey COVID-19 lockdown cloud is however appearing over Europe's two largest pure electric car markets – Germany and France – accounting for 41 per cent of the regional plug-in market. Some manufacturer laggards, with slow plug-in pushes at the beginning of the year, may be biting their nails, whilst potentially struggling to clear the final compliance fences and are consequently scrambling to join CO2 pools in a similar vein to the VW/SAIC announcement as exclusively reported by this report.... Story continues in the full report In brief:

W-European plug-in market remains ahead of China in Q3 With Q3 giving the first genuine comparison this year as the corona pandemic struck in two different quarters in the opening half, the W-European plug-in market, boosted by CO2 targets was 19,000 units ahead of China in the third quarter.

Share of German car production fitted with a plug – highest on record August VDA data identified that the total share of German monthly passenger car production accounted for by plug-ins (BEV/PHEV) rose to 17.4%, almost every fifth vehicle in the quieter summer month. This year 185,000 EVs were manufactured (full year 2019: 194,000). VW expect their current German daily MEB production to reach 800 by the end of the year and a 1,500 daily rate from H1 2021.

Daimler sees German CO2 fleet average finally fall VW Group, Daimler and Hyundai/Kia, all relying on second half plug-in pushes to reach CO2 compliance targets, are finally witnessing tangible German pushes. Daimler's September CO2 average dropped below 140g/km (WLTP). A second lock-down could still hinder this progress towards compliance though with CO2 pools an option. Tesla W.European Q3 registrations fall despite more available capacity With Tesla's Californian Fremont facility no longer supplying China with its Model 3 model, thanks to local Chinese production beginning earlier this year, US shipments to Europe were expected to increase this year. However latest data shows Tesla's West European Q3 registrations fell by -12.3% y/y to 26,000 units (13.5% market share).

BEVs benefited from a quarterly Tesla + September ID.3 contribution Combined plug-in volumes increased to 155,000 in September driven by BEVs (91K) while PHEVs also recorded another record month (64K).

This is just a summary of the European Electric Car Sales Monthly Market Intelligence Report which is published on a monthly basis and are available here.


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