2024 is turning into a year of consolidated stability, as our long-term forecast consistently identified, returning to our first edition, published in 2019. This year, we continue to see the expected slowing of the market, with EU CO2 fleet emissions being reduced in 2025. The key legislation, acting as a navigation instrument for an industry transitioning from an over 100-year-old technology – ICE – to a new one – BEV – continues to use this as a key standard for product cycles. Alongside the UK's ZEV mandate implementation, our latest forecast (page 6) factors in these market interventionist policies and the battle with the free market economy.
Our updated forecast shows that 16.9% of this year's West European new passenger car market (identical to 2023), or 2.02 million units (+55,000 units), are expected to consist of BEV models.
However, July and August are expected to see substantial year-on-year losses before the year's final four months see volume gains once again.
June, July, and August of last year saw significant special effects, helping BEV volumes reach inflated volumes thanks to Germany's government withdrawing BEV purchase subsidies for corporate consumers at the end of August 2023.
That created a large pull-forward and made it all the more impressive that the June losses recorded this year of just -0.3%y/y, weren't, in fact, more significant.
Alongside price cuts from many manufacturers in the early part of 2024, now being reflected in deliveries, the region's main laggard, Italy, with the lowest BEV penetration year to date, proved a major catalyst in June thanks to new purchase subsidies being introduced and preventing greater losses in June.
West European new BEV car market guidance y/y:
Short-term (2-month) outlook: Below previous year
Final quarter 2024: Slightly above
2025: Significantly above
Where has 2024's stability come from?
June, was expected to see steep losses, reflecting a strong month last year.
Alongside the high deliveries in Germany last summer, a significant backorder of models in Norway and Sweden boosted the market, resulting from a lag from orders made at the end of 2022 before 25% VAT was applied for the value of BEVs over 500,000 NOK in Norway, alongside consumers ordering BEV models in Sweden before subsidies were withdrawn from 2023.
Deliveries could finally be made as 2023 progressed.
The resulting expected black hole this summer looks like it has been partially filled, thanks to a number of OEMs' quick reaction to address the potential of a giant hangover in 2024, alongside the extra headache of the region's largest BEV passenger car market, Germany, withdrawing subsidies since the start of this year.
Volkswagen began reducing the prices of its electric line-up in the first few weeks of 2024 in an attempt to keep EU CO2 fleet average regulatory targets on track.
The lag from those offers, which were up to €7,000 off specific models are now being reflected in deliveries. VW's 4-year-old ID.3 recorded its best month since December 2022 across the region with 9,700 new registrations in June, making it a top-three model during the same month. In January it scraped in at number twenty. Continues for subscribers along with the full-study available here.◼︎︎
More exclusive in-depth data like this and insights are published for subscribers (€) in the The European Electric Car Study published by Schmidt Automotive Research each month, which is available to purchase as a single edition or an annual subscription.
The study now also features a double page in-depth look at the Chinese OEMs as their European expansion slowly begins.
*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK
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