West European new plug-in passenger car market to end 2025 with over 30% mix of total new car market according to new study.
- Matthias Schmidt
- 13 minutes ago
- 3 min read
According to the latest European Electric Car Market Intelligence Study covering the period September and Q3 2025, thanks to the UK's seasonality registration changeover, a recurring tailwind, aided the market in pushing Western European new BEV passenger car market penetration levels ever closer to above 20%. January to September witnessed pure electric models achieve a 19.6% mix.
A blustery end to the year full of positive trade winds from Italy (purchase incentive boost), the UK's Electric Car Grant (ECG) rollout and the return of the French social-leasing scheme are forecast to push the regional BEV market to an end of year penetration of 21.2% which would bring the plug-in market to above 30% for the first time thanks to a revival from PHEVs. 50,000 applications are available as part of the French budget, which crucially isn't funded by the French state household budget but CEE Energy Savings Certificates. Weak BEV pricing by OEMs this year, to lower fleet emission targets, will also see strong order banks delivered in the final months, boosting Q4 volumes.
PHEVs are on course to achieve a double-digit market share by the end of the year for the first time. The forecast sees PHEVs account for a 10.1% share of the total market during 2025, or 1.17 million units. Chinese models are increasingly contributing, accounting for over 10% of those models, which are helping them pivot away from anti-subsidy tariffs that have been levied on BEVs-only.
However, the tariffs only appear to be partially working. The Western European region, which includes Norway and the UK, which haven't replicated the levies, witnessed Chinese OEMs' third quarter BEV penetration of the region's market hit a new high of 12%, prior to new entrants from the likes of GAC (Aion), Changan (Deepal) and Geely's namesake brand added to the equation from Q4. However, incumbents' 2026 shift to LFP battery chemistry, helping cost/price with added brand equity, will expand the market reach downwards from the likes of Volkswagen Group to the A and B segments.
We still remain mildly cautious on Chinese OEMs' genuine market uptake, however, given German data continues to show private uptake for BYD models hovering at just above 10% of their total volumes and models going into car rental fleet at double those levels. BYD have just lowered the price of its Dolphin Surf model by €3,000 at certain German dealerships, just weeks after they raised prices by €3,000, showing a lack of confidence and KPI pressures.
Some highlights:
PHEV volumes continue to rebound, with September witnessing volumes increase by 59.3% y/y and 30.4% year-to-date.
The Western European total BEV vehicles in use (Parc) figure is expected to surpass 10 million units for the first time by the close of the year.
Volkswagen Group dominates the region's BEV market, accounting for 28.1% of the total regional market. Tesla's share fell to 9.5% from 16.7% during the same period last year. Four in ten of BMW Group's new registrations are now plug-in models.
Small A/B-segment BEV models are on track to see the most significant gains during the final quarter of the year as purchase subsidies favour these compact models, qualifying in markets where price ceilings are in place, such as France. That boost is expected to help particularly Renault and Stellantis, which are positively exposed to those markets that will see stimulus packages be introduced from October.
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Source: Schmidt Automotive Research
*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK
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