Western Europe's pure electric passenger car market, despite moving ahead of new diesel registrations during December 2021, have trailed them ever since.
End-of-quarter BEV bounce fails to materialise, thanks to Tesla's Chinese production stoppages, as well as the European wire-harness production situation and subsequent lag, leading to more reserved volumes than previously forecast.
BEVs forecast to pass diesels by December 2022 at the latest once again (possibly September driven by the UK registration changeover in a market that has half the regional diesel mix as the rest of the region, as well as BEV volumes driven by Tesla and VW Group making up for the production stoppages earlier this year). December will once again be boosted by OEMs striving to reach CO2 fleet emissions targets, according to the the monthly study, as well as consumers hoping to take advantage of purchase subsides that will be cut by next year in some major markets.
West European new BEV passenger car registrations' monthly mix remains adrift of diesel (including diesel hybrids) according to the European Electric Car Study's latest research.
With a large BEV boost failing to materialize in June 2022, due to the wire-harness production shutdowns and consequent delivery lag, witnessed in Q1/Q2, as well as the missing Tesla deliveries that were impacted by the Covid shutdown at its China facility during Q2 and impacting shipping to Europe, the new diesel car market remained ahead of pure electric vehicles in the 18 market West European region.
BEVs have only surpassed diesels for one month on record, and that was December 2021. The final month of 2021 experienced a boost from OEMs rushing to register BEVs in order to meet their respective EU, UK and Swiss CO2 compliance targets.
The monthly report expects September, or at the latest December to see BEVs move ahead of diesels once again, boosted by Tesla deliveries and other OEMs such as Volkswagen AG increasing BEV deliveries in order to meet CO2 compliance for 2022 and clear order book backlogs on the back of an improving semiconductor scenario.
The monthly study believes diesel registrations are potentially being artificially inflated to an extent by the rental car market, especially in markets such as Germany where diesel prices have peaked at new highs since the Ukraine crisis, in a market that traditionally saw the diesel price at the pump well below petrol fuel.
Large rental car fleets traditionally gave OEMs a get-out-of-jail card to unload unloved models, which could well now include a - bursting at the seams - diesel inventory, where parts were procured and contracts signed with suppliers, years in advance.
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*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK