The Netherlands premium passenger cars sales this year are painting an interesting picture. With Tesla vehicle deliveries inflated due to a Benefit in Kind (BIK) tax rise for the value of electric cars over €50,000, BIK will rise from 4% to 22%. Tesla urged its Dutch customers to order before mid-July to guarantee delivery by December 31st when the 4 per cent BIK level will change at the stroke of midnight.
This surge in Tesla sales has moved The Netherlands to the top European country for Tesla Model S registrations after 7-months this year.
Winner and losers
From 7-months data it appears that the premium car manufacture which is suffering most comparatively at the hands of Tesla’s surge is Jaguar Land Rover and not as previously thought the premium German 3. Tesla outsold combined Jaguar Land Rover sales in the opening 7-months in The Netherlands by some margin.
Jaguar saw its sales slip by 7.7 percent to 846 units and Land Rover by 7.3 per cent to 1,119 units. Tesla surged 123.6 percent to 3,041 units.
Outlook
Tesla's surge expected to be halted next year, until Model 3 arrives, if it arrives. Model 3 is expected to arrive in Europe next year and will only be affected by this tax hike for models with trim levels over €50,000.
In July according to AID Newsletter data and my own research Tesla outsold Jaguar globally for the first time and is forecast to outsell the brand in the whole of this year’s second half despite the arrival of Jaguar’s first all electric vehicle with customer deliveries beginning now.
Consequences
If this sales gain by Tesla over JLR is repeated when Model 3 is launched in Europe JLR could be in trouble due to their relatively small size. The sudden arrival of Jaguar’s I-Pace electric model now rather than closer to 2020 when super credits will be available for BEVs helping bring average fleet CO2 levels down significantly was a likely reaction to this Tesla threat. German premium BEV models are likely being delayed and pushed closer to 2020 to receive the maximum super credits available.